Disease Constant Threat
"Common cocoa tree disease are Witches Broom and Black Pod, which are devastating to a cocoa orchard. The International Cocoa Organization (ICCO), which is a cartel established to ensure fair international trade in cocoa and to ensure steady supply and support prices, has been fighting these two common disease for the past several years with moderate success."

Source:http://www.gptc.com/info/cocoa.html

Trees that become infected with disease will no longer be available for use shortening the supply. A supply shortage will increase the price even if the demand stays same.

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