Holly Corporation operate as a petroleum refiner in the United States and northern Mexico. The company also manufactures and markets asphalt products and transports liquid petroleum gas to wholesalers and retailers.
Investment Impacts (help)
USA Country Analysis ► (edit / improve) The United States (US) has a highly productive, capitalist economy and is the largest and most diverse market in the world. Currency: the US dollar (USD) has the potential to increase in value especially versus the Australian and Canadian dollar because of the significant potential of undervalued companies. Investor Survey: the economic environment is very favorable for long term economic growth due to high scores on economic freedom and economic diversity. Trade: China, Japan, Mexico, and Canada are the top US trading partners, while the leading export and import are electrical machinery and vehicles, respectively. Commodity: The US produces a significant amount of coal and wheat for use at home and as an export. However, the US consumes a larger amount of oil, which contributes to their trade deficit. SWOT Analysis: The leading US strength is its entrepreneurial culture, while the main weakness is high health care cost. Energy independence has the opportunity to propel growth, while the major threat is the housing crisis, which will lower growth. Trading Strategy: An undervalued currency, high investment flow potential and favorable business environment lead to a positive outlook for US investments, which will also benefit from positive international actions.
Commodity Investment Analysis
Crude Oil Commodity Analysis ► (edit / improve) Crude oil is used to produce fuel oil and gasoline. Gasoline is the largest supplier of fuel for internal combustion engines. Commodity: Crude oil is rated a Sell. Crude oil demanders have a moderate potential to increase in value and crude oil suppliers have a very high potential to increase in value. Investor Survey: Crude oil’s long term growth potential is very favorable due to high scores on sensitivity to price changes, demand not sensitive to price changes, and the SWOT analysis. SWOT Analysis: Strength: Limited natural resource / supply; Weakness: Emits carbon dioxide. Opportunity to grow: the overall growth of vehicles will increase demand for crude oil; Threats to growth: environmental concerns could slow growth potential in the near term. Trading Strategy: The commodity analysis sell rating indicates that crude oil prices should decrease over the short term, whereas a very favorable investor survey means crude oil prices increase over the long term.
Industry Analysis evaluates the major industry characteristics that affect investments. Company specific factors drive the performance of individual companies, but macro-economic factors can affect the performance, stock prices, growth rates, and chart movements of any stock, currency, or commodity. All stock traders should review industry research before trading.
Warren Buffett Quote: "When a management with a reputation for brilliance tackles a business with a reputation for bad economics, it is the reputation of the business that remains intact." No matter the quality of your business, industry economics is an important factor in any value investing decision.
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Value Investing Importance?
A professional evaluations can cost between $150 to $15,000. In order to understand an investment, traders must research industry margins, stock prices, multiples, news, growth rates, stock chart, and any other relevant measurement to avoid mistakes.
Description: The energy stocks includes companies whose sales derive from the production and sale of energy related products and services such as the extraction, manufacturing, refining, and distribution of energy. Read More.
Profit Analysis: The best way to profit from energy stock investments is to find the most undervalued investments (Wall Street and Main Street buy ratings) during economic recessions. Those investments should be undervalued (see Wall Street on left side), and have high Main Street Common Sense investment ratings (see Main Street on right side). When an economic recovery occurs, energy stocks tend to outperform the general stock market, because general consumer demand increases.
Energy stocks are most sensitive to commodity prices, which are an indicator of future energy demand. Energy commodity speculators try to predict the demand and supply of commodities, but their generally set prices too high during economic expansions and too low during economic recessions. Therefore, the best time to make energy stock investments is during economic recessions. The best time to sell energy stocks is in the late stages of economic expansions, when energy stocks and commodity prices are above their fair prices. Expensive (overvalued) stocks with low Main Street Common Sense ratings should be sold at any time to invest in better stocks. Two buys ratings are the best and two sell ratings are the worst possible stock investments.
Trading Strategy: The energy stocks tends to be very sensitive to economic changes. Demand for energy is inelastic, so it does not easily change with changes in price. Therefore, changes in supply have a large impact on the price of fuel. Some sectors of the energy stocks require large investments over an extended period of time, which causes issues with adjusting energy supply with demand, so prices tend to be volatile. Energy stock prices tend to move in line with energy commodity prices. During economic recessions, consumers may decrease expenses slightly, but the majority of energy costs are not flexible, because they are needed for everyday living.
Since energy needs are inflexible, stock prices are less influenced by changed in the economy. However, commodity prices such as oil or natural gas have a direct impact on energy stock investments. Changes in commodity prices are a result of changes in supply and demand. Recently, oil prices increased, because of the demand for oil from emerging markets. Unfortunately, the global recession decreased growth estimates and demand until oil prices fell from 160 dollars a barrel to 35 dollars a barrel.
Part of oil price changes are do to speculation. When speculators increase the price of oil, many alternative sources of fuel become profitable. When companies make investments in these alternative sources of fuel, supply increases until energy prices start to fall. If prices fall too far, then the alternative fuel sources become less profitable and shutdown, which decreases demand. Stock prices rise and fall with energy commodity prices.
| Energy Financial Statistics |
Stat |
Notes |
| Stock Research Rating |
Buy |
… |
| Potential (safety margin) |
64% |
High ~ Good for investors |
| WACC Discount Rate |
8% |
Low ~ Good for investors |
| Comparative Multiples |
Stat |
Notes |
| Revenue EV Multiple |
1.1x |
Low ~ Good for investors |
| EBITDA EV Multiple |
4.6x |
Low ~ Good for investors |
| EBIT EV Multiple |
5.5x |
Low ~ Good for investors |
| Cash Flow EV Multiple |
14.0x |
… |
| Book Value EV Multiple |
1.1x |
Low ~ Good for investors |
| Discounted Cash Flow |
Stat |
Notes |
| Revenue Growth |
21% |
High ~ Good for investors |
| EBITDA Margin |
28% |
High ~ Good for investors |
| EBIT Margin |
21% |
High ~ Good for investors |
| Cash Flow Margin |
5% |
… |
| Taxes Rate |
37% |
… |
| Debt-Equity Ratio |
22% |
Low ~ Good for investors |
| ROIC |
5% |
… |
| Reinvestment Rate |
15% |
… |
| WACC Discount Rate |
Stat |
Notes |
| Risk Free Rate |
4% |
Low ~ Good for Investors |
| Cost of Debt |
7% |
Low ~ Good for Investors |
| Equity Risk Premium |
5% |
… |
| Debt Required Return of Debt |
4% |
Low ~ Good for Investors |
| Required Return of Equity |
9% |
… |
1 WikiWealth only uses the largest 30 companies in each industry for the basis of these financial measures. Each statistic is the market weighted average of the 30 companies.
2 Investment potential (margin of safety) is a weighted average of the discounted cash flow (DCF), the enterprise value (EV) market multiple, and the Warren Buffett investment methods.
