Research Report ►(comments)

When local governments provide a favorable economic environment, the demand and value of their currencies will also increase. WikiWealth's Fundamental Currency Analysis is a combination of four different valuation methods: investment flows, purchase price parity, interest rate parity, and inflation rate parity (see Fundamental Currency Analysis). WikiWealth, and website visitors, examine the conditions for companies to prosper through the "Investor Survey." Countries with strong fundamental freedom, transparency, stability, strengths & opportunities (see Main Street Analysis), will aid the long term potential of companies. A "Buy" rating from both approaches mean a country's currency has high potential to increase in value.

USA Summary

USA Country Analysis ► (edit / improve) The United States (US) has a highly productive, capitalist economy and is the largest and most diverse market in the world. Currency: the US dollar (USD) has the potential to increase in value especially versus the Australian and Canadian dollar because of the significant potential of undervalued companies. Investor Survey: the economic environment is very favorable for long term economic growth due to high scores on economic freedom and economic diversity. Trade: China, Japan, Mexico, and Canada are the top US trading partners, while the leading export and import are electrical machinery and vehicles, respectively. Commodity: The US produces a significant amount of coal and wheat for use at home and as an export. However, the US consumes a larger amount of oil, which contributes to their trade deficit. SWOT Analysis: The leading US strength is its entrepreneurial culture, while the main weakness is high health care cost. Energy independence has the opportunity to propel growth, while the major threat is the housing crisis, which will lower growth. Trading Strategy: An undervalued currency, high investment flow potential and favorable business environment lead to a positive outlook for US investments, which will also benefit from positive international actions.

Investment Impacts (help)

Crude Oil Commodity Analysis ► (edit / improve) Crude oil is used to produce fuel oil and gasoline. Gasoline is the largest supplier of fuel for internal combustion engines. Commodity: Crude oil is rated a Sell. Crude oil demanders have a moderate potential to increase in value and crude oil suppliers have a very high potential to increase in value. Investor Survey: Crude oil’s long term growth potential is very favorable due to high scores on sensitivity to price changes, demand not sensitive to price changes, and the SWOT analysis. SWOT Analysis: Strength: Limited natural resource / supply; Weakness: Emits carbon dioxide. Opportunity to grow: the overall growth of vehicles will increase demand for crude oil; Threats to growth: environmental concerns could slow growth potential in the near term. Trading Strategy: The commodity analysis sell rating indicates that crude oil prices should decrease over the short term, whereas a very favorable investor survey means crude oil prices increase over the long term.

Dependence on imported oil as a major fuel source is transferring much of the US's wealth from the US to the OPEC countries. This hurts the long term currency value, because internal savings rates are low and a trade deficit hurts the federal balance sheet.

Financial Industry Analysis ► (edit / improve) The financial services industry includes companies whose sales come from the management of money for individuals and institutions. Financial services companies include banks, insurance companies, brokerage, wealth management, and credit card companies. Valuation: Based on WikiWealth's Wall Street analysis, this industry is a Hold. The Main Street analysis is also a Hold, with SWOT strengths much great than weaknesses, but SWOT opportunities less than threats. Trade: Some of the main centers for financial innovation include the US, Switzerland, the EU, Netherlands, Australia, Hong Kong, and Japan. Trading Strategy: The financial industry is sensitive to economic cycles. However, financial service companies increase quickly out of recessions, because interest rates tend to be low. Look for undervalued financial investments during economic recessions when stock prices are low and sell financial investments during the late stages of a bull markets when stock prices are high. The global economy is currently in a recession, therefore, it is the perfect time to purchase financial investments. Upward sloping stock charts and financial news may indicate a selling opportunity while the opposite means that stocks are becoming undervalued.

The US financial industry is very innovative and usually a global leader. Recent actions hurt their ability to compete, but future US potential still relies on a robust banking system.

Major USA Trade Partners ► Press "Edit / Improve"

China Country Analysis ► (edit / improve) China (CNY) is a fast growing communist country with the largest population in the world. Currency: China’s currency is moderately undervalued. Purchase price parity shows that China’s currency is approximately 40% undervalued, however, the other three valuation approaches show that China is fairly valued. Investor Survey: China’s economic environment is very unfavorable for long term economic growth due to the lack of economic freedom, government transparency, and the SWOT analysis. Trade: Indonesia, Pakistan, Norway, Singapore, Europe, the US are the top export partners, while the leading industry is industrial goods, usually for export. Commodity: China produces a significant amount of coal for use at home. The use of coal to provide energy leads to other health related problems. SWOT Analysis: The leading Chinese strength is their cheap labor, while the main weaknesses are political risk and corruption. Renewable energy has the opportunity to propel growth, while general pollution and an aging population could slow growth rates. Trading Strategy: An undervalued currency, average investment flow potential and an unfavorable business environment leads to a neutral outlook for Chinese investments.

Japan Country Analysis ► (edit / improve) Japan (JPY), the second largest economy in the world, has an industrial, export oriented economy that benefits from its relationship with the USA and proximity to China. Currency: Japan’s currency (the Yen) is overvalued according to investment flow potential, the purchase price parity, and the interest rate parity. Investor Survey: Japan’s economic environment is moderately favorable for long term economic growth due to high scores on economic freedom and government transparency, but low scores on the SWOT Analysis. Trade: Indonesia, China, Singapore, the EU, Korea, and the US are Japan’s top export partners, while the leading industry is industrial manufacturing. Commodity: Japan imports many products because of its lack of arable land and energy resources. SWOT Analysis: The leading Japanese strength is their education system, while the main weakness is a declining birth rate. A major Japanese threat is the continuation of zombie companies. Trading Strategy: An overvalued currency, low investment flow potential and moderate business environment leads to a negative outlook for Japanese investments.

Mexico Country Analysis ► (edit / improve) Mexico (MXN) has a capitalist economy with a fast growing service and industrial base. Currency: the Mexican currency has moderate potential to increase in value per the purchase price parity and interest rate parity analysis. Investor Survey: the economic environment is moderate for long term economic growth. SWOT weaknesses are significantly greater than SWOT strengths, whereas, opportunities are greater than threats. Trade: The US and Canada are the top trading partners, while the leading exports are in the industrial and agricultural sectors. Commodity: Mexico produces crude oil, corn, propane, silver, pork, oats, and chicken for export. SWOT Analysis: Transportation infrastructure and crime are the leading SWOT weaknesses, while tourism and education are the leading SWOT opportunities. Trading Strategy: An undervalued currency, low investment flow potential and unfavorable business environment lead to neutral or negative outlook for Mexican investments.

Canada Country Analysis ► (edit / improve) Canada (CAD) has a capitalist, service-based, economy and is one of the wealthiest countries in the world. The services and materials industry are the two main employers. Currency: the Canadian dollar has the potential to decrease in value especially if export markets for materials do not perform well. Investor Survey: the economic environment is very favorable for long term economic growth due to high scores on economic freedom and SWOT strengths. Trade: China, UK, Japan, Mexico and the US are Canada’s top trading partners, while the leading exports are energy and materials. Commodity: Canada has the capacity to produce a significant amount of crude oil. Other commodities include Uranium, lumber, zinc, and nickel. SWOT Analysis: The Leading Canadian strengths include Canada’s free trade policy, oil reserves, and universal health system. Trading Strategy: An overvalued currency and low investment flow potential are negatives, while the favorable business environment is a significant positive. Canada’s potential is neutral.

UK Country Analysis ► (edit / improve) The UK (GBP) has a highly productive, capitalist economy with a strong financial services industry. Currency: The British Pound is slightly overvalued on a global basis. The purchase price parity indicates that the British Pound should fall in value over time. Investor Survey: The UK’s economic environment is very favorable for long term economic growth due to high scores on economic freedom, government transparency, and economic diversity. Trade: Belgium, India, the EU, Netherlands, and France are the top export partners, while the leading industry is financial services. Commodity: The UK produces a significant amount of natural gas and imports of cocoa for domestic consumption. SWOT Analysis: The leading UK strength is the London Stock Exchange, which aids the financial services industry. The main weaknesses include high consumer and fiscal deficits. Trading Strategy: An overvalued currency, moderate investment flow potential and very favorable business environment leads to a neutral outlook for UK investments.

Import

Germany Country Analysis ► (edit / improve) Germany (EUR) is the largest economy in Europe and relies on a strong and sophisticated industrial base to drive their exports. Currency: Germany is part of the Euro economic zone, whose currency has the potential to decrease in value on a global scale per the purchase price parity. Investor Survey: Germany’s economic environment is favorable for long term economic growth due to high scores on economic freedom, economic diversity, and government transparency. Trade: The UK, France, and USA are the top export partners, while the leading export industry is industrial goods. Commodity: Germany imports many commodities to feed its industrial base: crude oil, coal, copper, aluminum, lead, zinc, and natural gas. SWOT Analysis: The leading German strength is their engineering expertise, while the main weakness is their declining birth rate. Trading Strategy: An overvalued currency, moderate investment flow potential and favorable business environment lead to a slightly positive outlook for German investments.

Major USA Production ► Press "Edit / Improve"

Coal Commodity Analysis ► (edit / improve) Coal is the largest source of fuel used to produce electricity in the world. Coal is also one of the largest sources of carbon dioxide emissions. Commodity: Coal is rated a Buy. Coal demanders have a high potential to grow, while coal suppliers have low potential in increase. Investor Survey: Coal’s long term growth potential is moderately favorable due to high scores on sensitivity to price changes and low sources in short supply and substitute products. SWOT Analysis: Strength: Coal is the largest source of energy worldwide; Weakness: coal produces considerable pollution. Opportunity to grow: coal’s widespread use could aid growth as the world economy grows; Threats to growth: alternative forms of clean energy may compete against coal. Trading Strategy: The commodity analysis buy rating indicates that coal should increase in price over the short term, whereas a moderately favorable investor survey means coal may not increase in price over the long term.

Wheat Commodity Analysis ► (edit / improve) Wheat is the third most popular cereal derived product in the world. Wheat can make flour for breads; cookies, cakes, cereal, pasta noodles or as feed for animals. Commodity Analysis: Wheat is rated a Buy. Wheat demanders and suppliers have a very high potential to increase in value, but the difference between the two mean that demand growth might outpace supply growth. Investor Survey: Wheat’s long term growth potential is moderately favorable due to high scores on the SWOT analysis. SWOT Analysis: Strength: Wheat grows well in many climates and has a variety of health benefits; Weakness: wheat produces many experience high cost of harvesting. Opportunity to grow: wheat’s widespread use could aid growth as the world economy grows; Threats to growth: plant disease and global warming are important threats. Trading Strategy: The commodity analysis buy rating indicates that wheat should increase in price over the short term, whereas a moderately favorable investor survey means wheat may increase in price over the long term.

Major USA Consumption ► Press "Edit / Improve"

Coffee Commodity Analysis ► (edit / improve) Coffee is a brewed beverage derived from the coffee plant beans. It is one of the most popular drinks in the world. Commodity: Coffee is rated a Buy. Coffee demanders have an average potential to increase in value, while coffee suppliers have low potential to increase in value. Investor Survey: Coffee’s long term growth potential is average due to high scores on SWOT opportunities, but low scores on lack of good substitute commodities. SWOT Analysis: Strength: Coffee is one of the most popular beverages in the world; Weakness: the cost of producing coffee increased. Opportunity to grow: coffee’s widespread use could aid growth as the world’s population increases; Threats to growth: plant disease may compete against coffee. Trading Strategy: The commodity analysis buy rating indicates that coffee should increase in price over the short term, whereas an average investor survey means coffee may stay the same in price over the long term.

Gasoline Commodity Analysis ► (edit / improve) Gasoline is primarily used as a fuel for internal combustion engines. It is a significant source of carbon dioxide. Commodity: Gasoline is rated a Sell. Gasoline demanders have a potential to increase in value, while gasoline suppliers have very high potential to increase. Investor Survey: Gasoline’s long term growth potential is very favorable due to high scores on sensitivity to price changes and lack of good substitutes. SWOT Analysis: Strength: Gasoline is a limited natural resource; Weakness: gasoline produces considerable pollution. Opportunity to grow: Gasoline’s use increases with increases in cars; Threats to growth: environmental friendly awareness may curb the growth of gasoline. Trading Strategy: The commodity analysis sell rating indicates that gasoline should decrease in price over the short term, whereas a very favorable investor survey means gasoline should increase in price over the long term.

Coal Commodity Analysis ► (edit / improve) Coal is the largest source of fuel used to produce electricity in the world. Coal is also one of the largest sources of carbon dioxide emissions. Commodity: Coal is rated a Buy. Coal demanders have a high potential to grow, while coal suppliers have low potential in increase. Investor Survey: Coal’s long term growth potential is moderately favorable due to high scores on sensitivity to price changes and low sources in short supply and substitute products. SWOT Analysis: Strength: Coal is the largest source of energy worldwide; Weakness: coal produces considerable pollution. Opportunity to grow: coal’s widespread use could aid growth as the world economy grows; Threats to growth: alternative forms of clean energy may compete against coal. Trading Strategy: The commodity analysis buy rating indicates that coal should increase in price over the short term, whereas a moderately favorable investor survey means coal may not increase in price over the long term.

Crude Oil Commodity Analysis ► (edit / improve) Crude oil is used to produce fuel oil and gasoline. Gasoline is the largest supplier of fuel for internal combustion engines. Commodity: Crude oil is rated a Sell. Crude oil demanders have a moderate potential to increase in value and crude oil suppliers have a very high potential to increase in value. Investor Survey: Crude oil’s long term growth potential is very favorable due to high scores on sensitivity to price changes, demand not sensitive to price changes, and the SWOT analysis. SWOT Analysis: Strength: Limited natural resource / supply; Weakness: Emits carbon dioxide. Opportunity to grow: the overall growth of vehicles will increase demand for crude oil; Threats to growth: environmental concerns could slow growth potential in the near term. Trading Strategy: The commodity analysis sell rating indicates that crude oil prices should decrease over the short term, whereas a very favorable investor survey means crude oil prices increase over the long term.

Important USA Industries ► Press "Edit / Improve"

Technology Industry Analysis ► (edit / improve) The technology industry broadly includes companies whose primary function is to create innovative products and processes. Information technology deals with the management and processing of information. Valuation: Based on WikiWealth's Wall Street analysis, this industry is a Hold with slightly negative potential. The Main Street analysis says a Buy, with SWOT strengths much great than weaknesses and SWOT opportunities equal to threats. Trade: Global centers of innovation include: the US, India, Japan, Israel, Korea, and Taiwan, while the main technology commodities include aluminum, copper, and silicon. Trading Strategy: The technology industry tends to be sensitive to economic cycles. Look for undervalued technology investments during economic recessions when stock prices are low and sell technology investments during the late stages of a bull markets when stock prices are high. The global economy is currently in a recession, therefore, it is the perfect time to purchase discretionary investments, because business significantly increase technology investments that they postponed during the recession. Upward sloping stock charts and financial news may indicate a selling opportunity while the opposite means that stocks are becoming undervalued.

Industrial Industry Analysis ► (edit / improve) The industrial industry includes companies whose sales originate from the manufacturing of materials into finished goods and services. Valuation: Based on WikiWealth's Wall Street analysis, this industry is a Hold, with slightly positive potential. The Main Street analysis says a Hold with SWOT strengths much great than weaknesses and SWOT opportunities less than threats. Trade: The following countries derive much of their income from the industrial sector of the economy: Brazil, Venezuela, USA, Belgium, the EU, Germany, France, China, Hong Kong and Japan. Main industrial commodities include the following: aluminum, copper, lead, nickel, palladium, silicon, steel, tin, and zinc. Trading Strategy: The industrial industry tends to be sensitive to economic cycles. Look for undervalued industrial investments during economic recessions when stock prices are low and sell industrial investments during the late stages of a bull markets when stock prices are high. The global economy is currently in a recession, therefore, it is the perfect time to purchase industrial investments. Upward sloping stock charts and financial news may indicate a selling opportunity while the opposite means that stocks are becoming undervalued.

Financial Industry Analysis ► (edit / improve) The financial services industry includes companies whose sales come from the management of money for individuals and institutions. Financial services companies include banks, insurance companies, brokerage, wealth management, and credit card companies. Valuation: Based on WikiWealth's Wall Street analysis, this industry is a Hold. The Main Street analysis is also a Hold, with SWOT strengths much great than weaknesses, but SWOT opportunities less than threats. Trade: Some of the main centers for financial innovation include the US, Switzerland, the EU, Netherlands, Australia, Hong Kong, and Japan. Trading Strategy: The financial industry is sensitive to economic cycles. However, financial service companies increase quickly out of recessions, because interest rates tend to be low. Look for undervalued financial investments during economic recessions when stock prices are low and sell financial investments during the late stages of a bull markets when stock prices are high. The global economy is currently in a recession, therefore, it is the perfect time to purchase financial investments. Upward sloping stock charts and financial news may indicate a selling opportunity while the opposite means that stocks are becoming undervalued.

Discretionary Industry Analysis ► (edit / improve) The consumer discretionary industry includes companies whose sales come from consumer discretionary income purchases. Discretionary income = gross income less taxes and necessities such as rent, mortgage and food. Valuation: Based on WikiWealth's Wall Street analysis, this industry is a Hold. The Main Street analysis says a Buy, with SWOT strengths great than weaknesses and SWOT opportunities greater than threats. Trade: Some of the main trade hubs include China, Mexico, Germany and Japan, while the main discretionary commodities include gold, silver, platinum and diamonds. Trading Strategy: The consumer discretionary industry tends to be very sensitive to economic cycles. Look for undervalued discretionary investments during economic recessions when stock prices are low and sell discretionary investments during the late stages of a bull markets when stock prices are high. The global economy is currently in a recession, therefore, it is the perfect time to purchase consumer discretionary investments. Upward sloping stock charts and financial news may indicate a selling opportunity while the opposite means that stocks are becoming undervalued.

Health Care Industry Analysis ► (edit / improve) The health care industry depends on the care of health-related services by professionals for the benefit of patients. Medical device markers, insurance companies, pharmaceutical drug developers and government institutions are major participants in the treatment of sick, injured and disabled patients. Valuation: Based on WikiWealth's Wall Street analysis, this industry is a Hold, but with good potential for short term growth. The Main Street analysis says a Hold, with SWOT strengths much great than weaknesses and SWOT opportunities less than threats. Major threats include government regulation and reimbursement policy inconsistency. Trade: Some of the main medical hubs include Switzerland, USA, and Japan, while the main health care commodities include advanced plastics, opium and cannabis. Trading Strategy: Health Care stocks tend to be less sensitive to economic changes. Look for undervalued health care investments at any point in the business cycle when stock prices are low. However, biotech, employment staffing and insurance companies may all decrease during recessions for different reasons. Government intervention is another important factor in health care investments, since government spending in health care is a very large portion of overall health care spending. When governments change spending plans, different sub-sectors in the industry are significantly affected. Upward sloping stock charts and financial news may indicate a selling opportunity while the opposite means that stocks are becoming undervalued.

Telecom Industry Analysis ► (edit / improve) The telecom industry includes companies who help transmit information for the purposes of communication. Valuation: Based on WikiWealth's Wall Street analysis, this industry is a Buy. The Main Street analysis is also a Buy, with SWOT strengths great than weaknesses and SWOT opportunities much greater than threats. Trade: Some of the main telecom hubs include india and the US, the main commodity in the telecom industry is copper. Trading Strategy: The telecom industry tends to be sensitive to economic cycles. Look for undervalued telecom investments during economic recessions when stock prices are low and sell telecom investments during the late stages of a bull markets when stock prices are high. The global economy is currently in a recession, therefore, it is the perfect time to purchase telecom investments. Upward sloping stock charts and financial news may indicate a selling opportunity while the opposite means that stocks are becoming undervalued.

Source: http://www.census.gov/foreign-trade/top/dst/current/balance.html

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