Research Report ►(comments)

Commodity prices change when there are unexpected changes to supply and demand of the target commodity. WikiWealth tries to predict these unexpected changes by examining the companies, which supply and demand the commodity (See Fundamental Commodity Analysis). When demand potential is greater then supply potential, then prices will increase; the opposite is also true. WikiWealth's Main Street Analysis captures - along with user help - the impact of supply and demand changes by analyzing the commodity's importance. In general, the more important the commodity, the faster the price will increase when commodity demand increases. A "Buy" rating from both approaches mean the commodity has high potential to increase in value.

Opium Summary

Opium Commodity Analysis ► (edit / improve) Opium is a narcotic derived from opium pods. It contains morphine and codeine and is highly addictive. Commodity: Opium is rated a Buy, because demanders of the plant have a high potential to increase in value. Unfortunately from an analytical standpoint, there are no publicly traded suppliers of opium; therefore, this analysis is incomplete. Investor Survey: Opium’s long term growth potential is moderately favorable due to high scores on sensitivity to price changes. SWOT Analysis: Strength: Opium has a number of medical uses; Weakness: The drug known as heroin is derived from the production of opium. Opportunity to grow: Opium’s medical uses are growing. This should increase demand for opium. Threat to grow: opium, in a concentrated form, is illegal through the world. Trading Strategy: The commodity analysis buy rating indicates that opium should increase in price over the short term, whereas a moderately favorable investor survey means opium may increase in price over the long term.

Investment Impacts (help)

USA Country Analysis ► (edit / improve) The United States (US) has a highly productive, capitalist economy and is the largest and most diverse market in the world. Currency: the US dollar (USD) has the potential to increase in value especially versus the Australian and Canadian dollar because of the significant potential of undervalued companies. Investor Survey: the economic environment is very favorable for long term economic growth due to high scores on economic freedom and economic diversity. Trade: China, Japan, Mexico, and Canada are the top US trading partners, while the leading export and import are electrical machinery and vehicles, respectively. Commodity: The US produces a significant amount of coal and wheat for use at home and as an export. However, the US consumes a larger amount of oil, which contributes to their trade deficit. SWOT Analysis: The leading US strength is its entrepreneurial culture, while the main weakness is high health care cost. Energy independence has the opportunity to propel growth, while the major threat is the housing crisis, which will lower growth. Trading Strategy: An undervalued currency, high investment flow potential and favorable business environment lead to a positive outlook for US investments, which will also benefit from positive international actions.

Industry Impact Analysis

Health Care Industry Analysis ► (edit / improve) The health care industry depends on the care of health-related services by professionals for the benefit of patients. Medical device markers, insurance companies, pharmaceutical drug developers and government institutions are major participants in the treatment of sick, injured and disabled patients. Valuation: Based on WikiWealth's Wall Street analysis, this industry is a Hold, but with good potential for short term growth. The Main Street analysis says a Hold, with SWOT strengths much great than weaknesses and SWOT opportunities less than threats. Major threats include government regulation and reimbursement policy inconsistency. Trade: Some of the main medical hubs include Switzerland, USA, and Japan, while the main health care commodities include advanced plastics, opium and cannabis. Trading Strategy: Health Care stocks tend to be less sensitive to economic changes. Look for undervalued health care investments at any point in the business cycle when stock prices are low. However, biotech, employment staffing and insurance companies may all decrease during recessions for different reasons. Government intervention is another important factor in health care investments, since government spending in health care is a very large portion of overall health care spending. When governments change spending plans, different sub-sectors in the industry are significantly affected. Upward sloping stock charts and financial news may indicate a selling opportunity while the opposite means that stocks are becoming undervalued.

- Opium derivative products are major, but addictive, sources of treatment of patients.

Materials Industry Analysis ► (edit / improve)

Description: The materials industry includes companies whose sales originate from the mining, acquisition and sale of physical substances for manufacturing-related purposes. Read More.

Profit Analysis: The best way to profit from material stock is to find the most undervalued investments (Wall Street and Main Street buy ratings) during economic recessions. Those investments should be undervalued (see Wall Street on left side), and have high Main Street Common Sense investment ratings (see Main Street on right side). When an economic recovery occurs, material stocks tend to outperform the general stock market, because consumers and businesses must increase their inventories quickly to meet demand for manufactured goods. Consumers and business delayed purchases on items they wanted, but resisted buying during tougher economic times. Eventually, material company investments become overvalued, because profits and stock prices increase past their fair values. During the last stages of an economic business cycle, just before a recession, it is best to sell material stocks, because they are likely to decrease in price the fastest. Expensive (overvalued) stocks with low Main Street Common Sense ratings should be sold at any time to invest in better stocks. Two buys ratings are the best and two sell ratings are the worst possible stock investments.

Inflation Hedge: Changes in commodity prices affect material stocks. When commodity prices are high due to increased demand or lower supply, material stocks increase, because demand for their goods also increases. Inflation occurs when the price of goods and services increases. The price of materials are generally the first inputs into the production of goods, so changes in material prices directly affect the cost of products, which is measured by inflation. Therefore, a good hedge against inflation is to own material stock investments. When inflation increases, so do the profits of material companies, which may have directly contributed to the increase in prices.

Trading Strategy: During economic recessions, consumers tend to cut back on spending to save money. Businesses tend to cut back on investments. Industrial companies make the products bought by consumers and businesses, but to make those products, industrial companies must obtain materials. Less spending on goods decreases material business revenue and eventually decreases stock prices. During economic recoveries, consumers and businesses spend quickly to replace or catch up with quickly increasing demand. Material companies quickly receive orders from industrial companies who need to manufacture new products to meet quickly increasing demand. Higher spending increases material business revenue and eventually increases stock prices. During a longer economic expansion, consumer and business demand increases for material companies, but at a slower pace than during the recovery stage.

¹ WikiWealth only uses the largest 30 companies in each industry for the basis of these financial measures. Each statistic is the market weighted average of the 30 companies.

² Investment potential (margin of safety) is a weighted average of the discounted cash flow (DCF), the enterprise value (EV) market multiple, and the Warren Buffett investment methods.

Major Opium Producers ► Press "Edit / Improve"

Afghanistan is a major producer of Opium.

Source: http://www.cbc.ca/world/story/2007/06/26/drug-report.html

Major Opium Importers ► Press "Edit / Improve"

USA Country Analysis ► (edit / improve) The United States (US) has a highly productive, capitalist economy and is the largest and most diverse market in the world. Currency: the US dollar (USD) has the potential to increase in value especially versus the Australian and Canadian dollar because of the significant potential of undervalued companies. Investor Survey: the economic environment is very favorable for long term economic growth due to high scores on economic freedom and economic diversity. Trade: China, Japan, Mexico, and Canada are the top US trading partners, while the leading export and import are electrical machinery and vehicles, respectively. Commodity: The US produces a significant amount of coal and wheat for use at home and as an export. However, the US consumes a larger amount of oil, which contributes to their trade deficit. SWOT Analysis: The leading US strength is its entrepreneurial culture, while the main weakness is high health care cost. Energy independence has the opportunity to propel growth, while the major threat is the housing crisis, which will lower growth. Trading Strategy: An undervalued currency, high investment flow potential and favorable business environment lead to a positive outlook for US investments, which will also benefit from positive international actions.

SWOT Analysis - Opium ► Add Your Input Below

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