Research Report ►(comments)

Commodity prices change when there are unexpected changes to supply and demand of the target commodity. WikiWealth tries to predict these unexpected changes by examining the companies, which supply and demand the commodity (See Fundamental Commodity Analysis). When demand potential is greater then supply potential, then prices will increase; the opposite is also true. WikiWealth's Main Street Analysis captures - along with user help - the impact of supply and demand changes by analyzing the commodity's importance. In general, the more important the commodity, the faster the price will increase when commodity demand increases. A "Buy" rating from both approaches mean the commodity has high potential to increase in value.

Crude Oil Summary

Crude Oil Commodity Analysis ► (edit / improve) Crude oil is used to produce fuel oil and gasoline. Gasoline is the largest supplier of fuel for internal combustion engines. Commodity: Crude oil is rated a Sell. Crude oil demanders have a moderate potential to increase in value and crude oil suppliers have a very high potential to increase in value. Investor Survey: Crude oil’s long term growth potential is very favorable due to high scores on sensitivity to price changes, demand not sensitive to price changes, and the SWOT analysis. SWOT Analysis: Strength: Limited natural resource / supply; Weakness: Emits carbon dioxide. Opportunity to grow: the overall growth of vehicles will increase demand for crude oil; Threats to growth: environmental concerns could slow growth potential in the near term. Trading Strategy: The commodity analysis sell rating indicates that crude oil prices should decrease over the short term, whereas a very favorable investor survey means crude oil prices increase over the long term.

Investment Impacts (help)

Saudi Arabia Country Analysis ► (edit / improve) Saudi Arabia (SAR) is an energy export driven economy in the Middle East. Currency: Saudi Arabia’s currency is correctly valued with low investment flow potential and high purchase price potential. Investor Survey: Saudi Arabia’s economic environment is unfavorable for long term economic growth due to low scores on government transparency and economic diversity. Trade: China, the EU, Japan, and the US are the top export partners, while the leading industry is related to energy. Commodity: Saudi Arabia produces a significant amount of crude oil, gasoline, and propane for use as an export. Saudi Arabia is also part of the OPEC cartel, which adjusts the supply of oil to maintain price. SWOT Analysis: The leading Saudi strength is their large oil supply, while the main weakness is their discriminatory problems. Economic cities have the opportunity to propel growth, while terrorism may lower growth. Trading Strategy: A moderately-priced currency, low investment flow potential and unfavorable business environment leads to a negative outlook for Saudi investments.

Russia Country Analysis ► (edit / improve) Russia (RUB) is a resource rich, centralized economy with a large land mass and population. Currency: Russia’s currency is significantly undervalued according to the investment flow analysis, purchase price parity, and interest rate parity. Investor Survey: Russia’s economic environment is very unfavorable. Russia’s economic freedom, government transparency and SWOT analysis scores are very low. Trade: China, and Turkey are Russia’s top export partners, while the leading industry is energy. Commodity: Russia produces a significant amount of natural gas, coal, copper, uranium, palladium, and crude oil. Russia exports many energy products to European Union members. SWOT Analysis: The leading Russian strength is their oil and gas industry, while the main weakness is political risk. Proximity to energy hungry Europe has the opportunity to propel growth, while falling oil prices may lower growth. Trading Strategy: An undervalued currency, high investment flow potential, but unfavorable business environment leads to a neutral outlook for Russian investments.

USA Country Analysis ► (edit / improve) The United States (US) has a highly productive, capitalist economy and is the largest and most diverse market in the world. Currency: the US dollar (USD) has the potential to increase in value especially versus the Australian and Canadian dollar because of the significant potential of undervalued companies. Investor Survey: the economic environment is very favorable for long term economic growth due to high scores on economic freedom and economic diversity. Trade: China, Japan, Mexico, and Canada are the top US trading partners, while the leading export and import are electrical machinery and vehicles, respectively. Commodity: The US produces a significant amount of coal and wheat for use at home and as an export. However, the US consumes a larger amount of oil, which contributes to their trade deficit. SWOT Analysis: The leading US strength is its entrepreneurial culture, while the main weakness is high health care cost. Energy independence has the opportunity to propel growth, while the major threat is the housing crisis, which will lower growth. Trading Strategy: An undervalued currency, high investment flow potential and favorable business environment lead to a positive outlook for US investments, which will also benefit from positive international actions.

Industry Investment Impact

Energy Industry Analysis ► (edit / improve) The energy industry includes companies whose sales derive from the production and sale of energy related products and services such as the extraction, manufacturing, refining, and distribution of energy. Valuation: Based on WikiWealth's Wall Street analysis, this industry is a Buy, with strong potential for short term gains. The Main Street analysis says a Hold, with SWOT strengths great than weaknesses, but SWOT opportunities less than threats. Significant threats include the curtailment of energy use for environmental reasons. Trade: Some of the main energy hubs include Saudi Arabia, Canada, Mexico, and Russia while the main energy commodities include coal, ethanol, gasoline, natural gas, crude oil, heating oil, palm oil, propane, and uranium. Trading Strategy: Energy investments tend to be very sensitive to commodity prices. Speculation and market manipulation by governments affect the energy market, therefore, cautiously invest in companies with significant potential. Upward sloping stock charts and financial news may indicate a selling opportunity while the opposite means that stocks are becoming undervalued.

- The energy industry requires many different fuel sources. Those sources help to power anything from small furnaces to large nuclear reactors.

Utility Industry Analysis ► (edit / improve) The utility industry includes companies whose sales come from the administration of public services such as water and power. Valuation: Based on WikiWealth's Wall Street analysis, this industry is a Hold, but with positive potential. The Main Street analysis says a Buy, with SWOT strengths great than weaknesses and SWOT opportunities greater than threats. Trade: Denmark is a major area of utility innovation, especially for the generation of power. Main utility commodities include coal, natural gas, crude oil, and uranium. Trading Strategy: The utility industry tends to be less sensitive to economic cycles, because public services are essential to industrial and residential consumers. Look to buy undervalued utility investments when stock prices are low and sell overvalued utility investments during any part of the business cycle when stock prices are high. Upward sloping stock charts and financial news may indicate a selling opportunity while the opposite means that stocks are becoming undervalued.

- Crude oil is a major fuel source for many power planets. Crude oil is volatile in price and comes from unstable regions of the world.

Energy Industry Analysis ► (edit / improve)

Description: The energy stocks includes companies whose sales derive from the production and sale of energy related products and services such as the extraction, manufacturing, refining, and distribution of energy. Read More.

Profit Analysis: The best way to profit from energy stock investments is to find the most undervalued investments (Wall Street and Main Street buy ratings) during economic recessions. Those investments should be undervalued (see Wall Street on left side), and have high Main Street Common Sense investment ratings (see Main Street on right side). When an economic recovery occurs, energy stocks tend to outperform the general stock market, because general consumer demand increases.

Energy stocks are most sensitive to commodity prices, which are an indicator of future energy demand. Energy commodity speculators try to predict the demand and supply of commodities, but their generally set prices too high during economic expansions and too low during economic recessions. Therefore, the best time to make energy stock investments is during economic recessions. The best time to sell energy stocks is in the late stages of economic expansions, when energy stocks and commodity prices are above their fair prices. Expensive (overvalued) stocks with low Main Street Common Sense ratings should be sold at any time to invest in better stocks. Two buys ratings are the best and two sell ratings are the worst possible stock investments.

Trading Strategy: The energy stocks tends to be very sensitive to economic changes. Demand for energy is inelastic, so it does not easily change with changes in price. Therefore, changes in supply have a large impact on the price of fuel. Some sectors of the energy stocks require large investments over an extended period of time, which causes issues with adjusting energy supply with demand, so prices tend to be volatile. Energy stock prices tend to move in line with energy commodity prices. During economic recessions, consumers may decrease expenses slightly, but the majority of energy costs are not flexible, because they are needed for everyday living.

Since energy needs are inflexible, stock prices are less influenced by changed in the economy. However, commodity prices such as oil or natural gas have a direct impact on energy stock investments. Changes in commodity prices are a result of changes in supply and demand. Recently, oil prices increased, because of the demand for oil from emerging markets. Unfortunately, the global recession decreased growth estimates and demand until oil prices fell from 160 dollars a barrel to 35 dollars a barrel.

Part of oil price changes are do to speculation. When speculators increase the price of oil, many alternative sources of fuel become profitable. When companies make investments in these alternative sources of fuel, supply increases until energy prices start to fall. If prices fall too far, then the alternative fuel sources become less profitable and shutdown, which decreases demand. Stock prices rise and fall with energy commodity prices.

¹ WikiWealth only uses the largest 30 companies in each industry for the basis of these financial measures. Each statistic is the market weighted average of the 30 companies.

² Investment potential (margin of safety) is a weighted average of the discounted cash flow (DCF), the enterprise value (EV) market multiple, and the Warren Buffett investment methods.

Major Crude Oil Producers ► Press "Edit / Improve"

Saudi Arabia Country Analysis ► (edit / improve) Saudi Arabia (SAR) is an energy export driven economy in the Middle East. Currency: Saudi Arabia’s currency is correctly valued with low investment flow potential and high purchase price potential. Investor Survey: Saudi Arabia’s economic environment is unfavorable for long term economic growth due to low scores on government transparency and economic diversity. Trade: China, the EU, Japan, and the US are the top export partners, while the leading industry is related to energy. Commodity: Saudi Arabia produces a significant amount of crude oil, gasoline, and propane for use as an export. Saudi Arabia is also part of the OPEC cartel, which adjusts the supply of oil to maintain price. SWOT Analysis: The leading Saudi strength is their large oil supply, while the main weakness is their discriminatory problems. Economic cities have the opportunity to propel growth, while terrorism may lower growth. Trading Strategy: A moderately-priced currency, low investment flow potential and unfavorable business environment leads to a negative outlook for Saudi investments.

Russia Country Analysis ► (edit / improve) Russia (RUB) is a resource rich, centralized economy with a large land mass and population. Currency: Russia’s currency is significantly undervalued according to the investment flow analysis, purchase price parity, and interest rate parity. Investor Survey: Russia’s economic environment is very unfavorable. Russia’s economic freedom, government transparency and SWOT analysis scores are very low. Trade: China, and Turkey are Russia’s top export partners, while the leading industry is energy. Commodity: Russia produces a significant amount of natural gas, coal, copper, uranium, palladium, and crude oil. Russia exports many energy products to European Union members. SWOT Analysis: The leading Russian strength is their oil and gas industry, while the main weakness is political risk. Proximity to energy hungry Europe has the opportunity to propel growth, while falling oil prices may lower growth. Trading Strategy: An undervalued currency, high investment flow potential, but unfavorable business environment leads to a neutral outlook for Russian investments.

USA Country Analysis ► (edit / improve) The United States (US) has a highly productive, capitalist economy and is the largest and most diverse market in the world. Currency: the US dollar (USD) has the potential to increase in value especially versus the Australian and Canadian dollar because of the significant potential of undervalued companies. Investor Survey: the economic environment is very favorable for long term economic growth due to high scores on economic freedom and economic diversity. Trade: China, Japan, Mexico, and Canada are the top US trading partners, while the leading export and import are electrical machinery and vehicles, respectively. Commodity: The US produces a significant amount of coal and wheat for use at home and as an export. However, the US consumes a larger amount of oil, which contributes to their trade deficit. SWOT Analysis: The leading US strength is its entrepreneurial culture, while the main weakness is high health care cost. Energy independence has the opportunity to propel growth, while the major threat is the housing crisis, which will lower growth. Trading Strategy: An undervalued currency, high investment flow potential and favorable business environment lead to a positive outlook for US investments, which will also benefit from positive international actions.

China Country Analysis ► (edit / improve) China (CNY) is a fast growing communist country with the largest population in the world. Currency: China’s currency is moderately undervalued. Purchase price parity shows that China’s currency is approximately 40% undervalued, however, the other three valuation approaches show that China is fairly valued. Investor Survey: China’s economic environment is very unfavorable for long term economic growth due to the lack of economic freedom, government transparency, and the SWOT analysis. Trade: Indonesia, Pakistan, Norway, Singapore, Europe, the US are the top export partners, while the leading industry is industrial goods, usually for export. Commodity: China produces a significant amount of coal for use at home. The use of coal to provide energy leads to other health related problems. SWOT Analysis: The leading Chinese strength is their cheap labor, while the main weaknesses are political risk and corruption. Renewable energy has the opportunity to propel growth, while general pollution and an aging population could slow growth rates. Trading Strategy: An undervalued currency, average investment flow potential and an unfavorable business environment leads to a neutral outlook for Chinese investments.

Mexico Country Analysis ► (edit / improve) Mexico (MXN) has a capitalist economy with a fast growing service and industrial base. Currency: the Mexican currency has moderate potential to increase in value per the purchase price parity and interest rate parity analysis. Investor Survey: the economic environment is moderate for long term economic growth. SWOT weaknesses are significantly greater than SWOT strengths, whereas, opportunities are greater than threats. Trade: The US and Canada are the top trading partners, while the leading exports are in the industrial and agricultural sectors. Commodity: Mexico produces crude oil, corn, propane, silver, pork, oats, and chicken for export. SWOT Analysis: Transportation infrastructure and crime are the leading SWOT weaknesses, while tourism and education are the leading SWOT opportunities. Trading Strategy: An undervalued currency, low investment flow potential and unfavorable business environment lead to neutral or negative outlook for Mexican investments.

Major Crude Oil Consumers ► Press "Edit / Improve"

USA Country Analysis ► (edit / improve) The United States (US) has a highly productive, capitalist economy and is the largest and most diverse market in the world. Currency: the US dollar (USD) has the potential to increase in value especially versus the Australian and Canadian dollar because of the significant potential of undervalued companies. Investor Survey: the economic environment is very favorable for long term economic growth due to high scores on economic freedom and economic diversity. Trade: China, Japan, Mexico, and Canada are the top US trading partners, while the leading export and import are electrical machinery and vehicles, respectively. Commodity: The US produces a significant amount of coal and wheat for use at home and as an export. However, the US consumes a larger amount of oil, which contributes to their trade deficit. SWOT Analysis: The leading US strength is its entrepreneurial culture, while the main weakness is high health care cost. Energy independence has the opportunity to propel growth, while the major threat is the housing crisis, which will lower growth. Trading Strategy: An undervalued currency, high investment flow potential and favorable business environment lead to a positive outlook for US investments, which will also benefit from positive international actions.

China Country Analysis ► (edit / improve) China (CNY) is a fast growing communist country with the largest population in the world. Currency: China’s currency is moderately undervalued. Purchase price parity shows that China’s currency is approximately 40% undervalued, however, the other three valuation approaches show that China is fairly valued. Investor Survey: China’s economic environment is very unfavorable for long term economic growth due to the lack of economic freedom, government transparency, and the SWOT analysis. Trade: Indonesia, Pakistan, Norway, Singapore, Europe, the US are the top export partners, while the leading industry is industrial goods, usually for export. Commodity: China produces a significant amount of coal for use at home. The use of coal to provide energy leads to other health related problems. SWOT Analysis: The leading Chinese strength is their cheap labor, while the main weaknesses are political risk and corruption. Renewable energy has the opportunity to propel growth, while general pollution and an aging population could slow growth rates. Trading Strategy: An undervalued currency, average investment flow potential and an unfavorable business environment leads to a neutral outlook for Chinese investments.

Japan Country Analysis ► (edit / improve) Japan (JPY), the second largest economy in the world, has an industrial, export oriented economy that benefits from its relationship with the USA and proximity to China. Currency: Japan’s currency (the Yen) is overvalued according to investment flow potential, the purchase price parity, and the interest rate parity. Investor Survey: Japan’s economic environment is moderately favorable for long term economic growth due to high scores on economic freedom and government transparency, but low scores on the SWOT Analysis. Trade: Indonesia, China, Singapore, the EU, Korea, and the US are Japan’s top export partners, while the leading industry is industrial manufacturing. Commodity: Japan imports many products because of its lack of arable land and energy resources. SWOT Analysis: The leading Japanese strength is their education system, while the main weakness is a declining birth rate. A major Japanese threat is the continuation of zombie companies. Trading Strategy: An overvalued currency, low investment flow potential and moderate business environment leads to a negative outlook for Japanese investments.

Russia Country Analysis ► (edit / improve) Russia (RUB) is a resource rich, centralized economy with a large land mass and population. Currency: Russia’s currency is significantly undervalued according to the investment flow analysis, purchase price parity, and interest rate parity. Investor Survey: Russia’s economic environment is very unfavorable. Russia’s economic freedom, government transparency and SWOT analysis scores are very low. Trade: China, and Turkey are Russia’s top export partners, while the leading industry is energy. Commodity: Russia produces a significant amount of natural gas, coal, copper, uranium, palladium, and crude oil. Russia exports many energy products to European Union members. SWOT Analysis: The leading Russian strength is their oil and gas industry, while the main weakness is political risk. Proximity to energy hungry Europe has the opportunity to propel growth, while falling oil prices may lower growth. Trading Strategy: An undervalued currency, high investment flow potential, but unfavorable business environment leads to a neutral outlook for Russian investments.

Germany Country Analysis ► (edit / improve) Germany (EUR) is the largest economy in Europe and relies on a strong and sophisticated industrial base to drive their exports. Currency: Germany is part of the Euro economic zone, whose currency has the potential to decrease in value on a global scale per the purchase price parity. Investor Survey: Germany’s economic environment is favorable for long term economic growth due to high scores on economic freedom, economic diversity, and government transparency. Trade: The UK, France, and USA are the top export partners, while the leading export industry is industrial goods. Commodity: Germany imports many commodities to feed its industrial base: crude oil, coal, copper, aluminum, lead, zinc, and natural gas. SWOT Analysis: The leading German strength is their engineering expertise, while the main weakness is their declining birth rate. Trading Strategy: An overvalued currency, moderate investment flow potential and favorable business environment lead to a slightly positive outlook for German investments.

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